See you in October, Cliff. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

When the news of Cliff Lee agreeing to a contract with the Phillies broke late last night, I was preoccupied by trying to get the site back online after yet another issue with our host. I was frustrated all night and didn’t know if it was because of the technical issues, Lee, or both. After a night of sleep, it’s easy to say it was both. But I digress.

There’s a lot running through my head right now about what losing out on Lee means for the Yankees going forward, so I’m just going to bullet point it because that seems easiest…

• It’s obvious that the Yankees have long coveted Lee, even before the non-trade in July. They made him an extremely competitive offer to join a perennial contender, and Lee simply said no. There’s nothing more Brian Cashman and the rest of the front office could have done, he just said no. There’s no one to blame.
• Part of me thinks that if the trade had gone through in July and Lee spent the second half of 2010 in New York that the odds of him signing long-term with the Yankees would have gone up astronomically, but we just don’t know if that’s true. He could have left for the Phillies anyway, in which case the Yanks would be out Jesus Montero (but potentially up on World Championship).
• I said it yesterday and I believe it even more today: the Yankees absolutely can not run out and make a knee-jerk reaction trade for a pitcher just because they lost out on Lee. That’s only going to make matters worse. Prices are through the roof at the moment.
• Please, let’s just give up on Joba Chamberlain the starter already. Yes, this is a perfect opportunity for them to move him back into the rotation, but they’ve been very clear about their intentions to keep him in the bullpen. It’s extremely likely that they just don’t think he can hold up under the starter’s workload.
• Let’s cut the “we’re DOOMED!” crap. The roster as it is is probably a 90 win team, more if Pettitte returns. We all know that the team they have right now is not the team they’ll go into the 2011 postseason with. Just get in, anything can happen in a short series.
• Joe will have more on the payroll a little later today, but the Yankees have something like $25-30MM burning a hole in their pocket right now, and that’s going to be spent somewhere. About half will go to Pettitte if he returns, and some of the remainder will probably go to Russell Martin and soon. I bet he’s signed within 48 hours, but then again I was optimistic about signing Lee at this time yesterday.
• How about all that garbage about how Texas had an advantage because of their proximity to Lee’s home in Arkansas and the lack of income tax? The Rangers reportedly made the best (largest) offer, and he still said no. As usual, the impact of that stuff was over-reported and over-stated.
• On the bright side, the Yankees will in all likelihood keep their first round pick (none of the four remaining Type-A’s fit), which means two top 50 picks and three top 80 picks in a stacked draft class. Silver lining.

So that’s it, there’s nothing you or I or the Yankees can do now. Lee is headed to Philadelphia, and the Yanks have to move on with their offseason. We should start to hear some rumors about potential pick-ups very soon, which should make for some good copy.

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

Thoughts on the Cliff Lee non-signing

(The following is being syndicated from The Captain’s Blog).

Cliff Lee probably wanted to return to Philadelphia all along, but he did not leave a lot of money on the table to do so. Contrary to the prevailing wisdom, the five-year, $120 million deal that Lee signed is not worth much less than what Jerry Crasnick reported was the Yankees final offer of six years at $132 million plus a $16 million player option. In fact, it might actually be worth more. The devil is really in the details, particularly the vesting sixth year option and incentives that exist in the Phillies’ offer, but even with those blanks left unfilled, we can still get a pretty good idea about how the two deals compare.

Comparison of Yankees’ and Phillies’ Reported Offers to Cliff Lee

 Note: Based on a nominal interest rate of 6% compounded monthly. Assumes salary paid in full each year (which favors shorter-term deal).
Source: zenwealth.com

Without factoring in the sixth year option, Lee left about $19 million in present value on the table, but that amount can be whittled down by about $1 million if you assume the extra $2 million in annual salary from the Phillies’ offer is invested at about 6% over the life of the deal. Furthermore, when you factor in New York State’s 6.85% top tax rate, which is more than twice that of Pennsylvania’s, the difference is mitigated further.

Even putting more nebulous variables like interest and tax rates aside, it’s still easy to narrow the gap between the two offers. For example, if the sixth year option is worth $16 million, as in the Yankees’ offer, the difference between the two deals would be narrowed to about $6.5 million. Of course, just because he won’t be under contract to Philadelphia in 2017 doesn’t mean Lee won’t be pitching somewhere. In other words, if he is able to negotiate a salary with a present value of $6.5 million (about $9.3 million) in that season, he’d actually wind up coming out ahead.

The bottom line is Cliff Lee did very well by his bottom line. He may have taken less guaranteed money, but in the long run negotiated a deal with the Phillies that is at least on par with the offer he had from the Yankees (and likely the Rangers as well). There’s no need to laud the Phillies’ stealthy maneuvering or applaud Lee for taking a discount because neither is appropriate (at least not until the final details are confirmed and suggest otherwise). Besides, what does it matter anyway? Lee is back where he wants to be and the Phillies are holding four aces. Now, it’s up to the rest of baseball to come up with a straight flush.

Part of being a Yankee fan–especially those of us who grew up during the Steinbrenner Era–means getting what you want come the off-season. But for every success story like Reggie Jackson, Goose Gossage or CC Sabathia, there are even more busts–Davey Collins, Steve Kemp, Melido Perez, and Jose Contreras leap to mind. Still, reflexively, we expect the Yanks to get their man. This year, the Bombers wanted Cliff Lee in the worst way. They made him the biggest offer. And he turned them down.

Sometimes the best gift is the one you don’t get. I think Lee did the Yanks a favor. Brian Cashman and the Yankee brass might be furious at the moment, and certainly, there are a lot of Yankee fans who are vexed this morning, but there is no reason to panic. Seven years for Lee was insane. He would have turned into the Ryan O’Neal of great pitchers for that many years in this town–not built to last.

So kudos to the Phillies. And now Cashman has to get creative. Good. I’m curious to see what he comes up with. Just because we don’t have a splashy big name to keep us warm during the holidays doesn’t mean it was the right thing to do let alone it being the end of the world. Nothing is f***** here. We don’t need to be un-Dude. (And thank goodness George still isn’t running things because heads would roll and dumb moves would be made.)

Hey, think of it this way, at least now we’ll get to read columnists and bloggers and blog readers offere their genius solutions. Ready to revive the Joba-to-the-rotation spiel? (God no, please no! It might make all the sense in the world for Chamberlain to start but that’s a moot pernt becuase the Yanks seem hell bent on keeping him in the pen.)

Who knows what surprises are in store?

It was a good day yesterday. Brett Favre’s streak was over, which put joy in my heart. And I was sound asleep last night, dreaming peacefully, when Squawker Jon called me and woke me out of my slumber to deliver the big news — that Cliff Lee had signed with the Phillies. I went all, “Whaaaattttt!!!!”

I’m not shocked in the least that Cliff Lee is not a Yanks. I’ve been skeptical all along that he would sign with the Bombers, thanks in no small part due to his wife. And while pretty much everybody in the media assumed for most of the winter that the Yankees would win the race due to money, I didn’t buy that, either. Squawker Jon and I spent a lot of time arguing about this, as I wrote this weekend:

As I have written before, I have been very skeptical that the Yankees would sign Cliff Lee. Squawker Jon and I have been arguing about this offline for the last two months. He figures the Yankees always get what they want. I contend that if anybody might turn down the Yankees’ money, it’s Lee.

What does shock me is that Lee is taking his talents to South Street, instead of staying in Texas. But hey, look on the bright side, Yankee fans: As one of my brothers reminded me this morning, at least we’ll have Derek Jeter at the top of the lineup and at shortstop again for the next four years!

I heard the talk yesterday of the Phillies being the mystery team, but I decided not to put much stock into those rumors after somebody on Twitter named IncarceratedBob said wrongly on Saturday that Lee signed with the Rangers (I was going to wait for what Red from Shawshank had to say!)

The biggest loser here has to be Brian Cashman. Squawker Jon says all Cash is capable of doing as a GM is writing a check, but he wasn’t even able to do that effectively this time around, given that Lee is taking less money and years from the Phillies.

Aside from the fact that the Yanks had to spend a month kissing Derek Jeter’s tuchis instead of negotiated with Lee, I found nothing cute or charming about Cashman spending the weekend before the winter meetings dressed like an elf, and rappelling down a building.

George Steinbrenner’s name gets used a lot these days — What Would George Do? seems to be a big mantra in the fan base. And I’m not going to claim that if The Boss were alive that Lee would be a Yankee; after all, John Smoltz turned down Steinbrenner and the Yankees after the 1996 World Series. That being said, as I wrote earlier in the month, Steinbrenner would never have allowed Cashman to have spent critical hot stove time dressed as an elf.

It showed exactly how much esteem Lee had for the Yankees when he personally called Jon Daniels, the Rangers GM, to say he was signing with Philly, while Cashman only got a call from Lee’s agent.

I hope Cashman came up with a Plan B when he was hanging off the side of that building, but I’m doubtful. And I certainly hope that his offseason plans don’t again involve giving failed Yankees a second chance, like the No. 2 free agent pitcher out there, Carl Pavano!

There has been a lot of talk since last night about how Cashman failed in not including either Eduardo Nunez and Ivan Nova in that possible trade for Lee. Could the Yankees have gotten to the World Series with Lee? Yes, but given that it turns out that CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte were both injured, I don’t know if they would have been able to beat the Giants. At any rate, Lee might very well have stiffed the Yankees again this winter, leaving them without Jesus Montero as well as the other prospects in the deal.

One other thing — I’ve admired the Philadelphia Phillies for being the NL’s version of the Yankees, but now they’ve gone too far. Break up the Phillies!

What do you think? Tell us about it!

Via George King –

The Phillies? Really?

Seven years for a possible $154 million from the Yankees wasn’t enough to land Cliff Lee, according to two baseball executives.

Instead, the 32-year-old free agent lefty took less money than the Yankees were offering and returned to the Phillies, the team he helped reach the 2009 World Series — won by the Yankees.

According to industry sources, the Phillies’ offer was five years for more than $100 million and a sixth-year player option. That’s lower than the Yankees who, according to sources, extended two offers. One was for seven years and $150 million; the other for a guaranteed six years at $138 million with a player option for $16 million in the seventh year that would have hiked the package to $154 million.

The Rangers offered six years with a vesting option, but even that wasn’t good enough to retain their ace, who hurled them to the World Series, but was beaten twice by the Giants.

So, barring a deal involving Cole Hamels or Roy Oswalt, the Phillies have assembled the premier rotation in baseball that is fronted by Roy Halladay with Lee in the No. 2 slot.

Early last night, there was a feeling in the Yankees’ organization that Lee wasn’t landing in The Bronx and that proved correct.

Before midnight they were told by Lee’s agent, Darek Braunecker, that Lee “was headed in a different direction.” Minutes later, Texas was informed Lee was going to Philadelphia.

Though many believe the Yankees are ruined without Lee, Cashman isn’t in that choir. Nor does he see a similarity between this situation and after the 2008 season when the Yankees missed the playoffs.

“This is much different than two years ago. We have a top-of-the-rotation pitcher in CC [Sabathia], an 18-game winner in [Phil] Hughes and A.J. [Burnett] will rebound,” Cashman said. “We also have some of the best young pitchers in baseball and a top 10 minor league system. We got a really good team and will make it better regardless of what transpires. I am not panicked by it.”

Well, I guess money can’t solve all of Cashman’s problems, for once, eh? What’s next? Some reports say that the Yankees will look to acquire another starter – perhaps beg Andy Pettitte not to retire? – and then try to improve the bullpen; and, hope for the best. I’ll say this: If Cashman really believes that Burnett will rebound and that Hughes has 18-game winner stuff, he’s going down the wrong road. Even when he was “good” in 2008 and 2009, Burnett was barely an above average pitcher and Hughes was lucky to win 18 games last season. Then again, Cashman believed that Hughes and Ian Kennedy were the answer in 2008 – and we all know how that worked out.

The news broke late last night, the mystery team was real after all and it proved to be the Phillies. There were reports that Cliff Lee let it be known in recent days that his first preference would a return to Philadelphia, and the two sides worked out an agreement for 5 years and 120 mil, with a reachable 6th year option. Here’s some quick reactions:

-For potential trade targets (and a glimpse at next year’s FA class) check out the MLBTR 2012 Free Agent list. It’s not a great class, but with Pujols looking for a monster extension maybe someone like Chris Carpenter can be had on a 1 year rental. Most of the rest of that list is either old, uninspiring, or unlikely to be had with the various contract options attached.

-Until Andy Pettitte comes back, as Yankee fans we have to admit the Red Sox are clearly the better team. The lineups are comparable, but the rotations aren’t close as things stand right now. Even once Andy comes back, I’ll give the edge to the BoSox. But at least then it’s a fight, right now it isn’t. Sergio Mitre and Ivan Nova simply aren’t as good as Clay Bucholtz and Dice-K.

-No faulting Brian Cashman here. He met with Lee twice and offered him more money than anyone else. MLBTR has the details:

Crasnick hears the Yankees offered a deal that guaranteed Lee $132MM over six years, plus a $16MM player option for a seventh year (Twitter link). At $148MM guaranteed, that was the highest bid. The Rangers offered $138MM over six years, and their proposal included a vesting option that could have brought the value of the deal to $161MM, according to Yahoo’s Tim Brown (Twitter links).

I must admit I’m surprised at how aggressive the Rangers were, but it didn’t matter. Lee just didn’t want to pitch here or in Texas, and took anywhere from 28-41 mil less to go back to Philly.

-As depressed as you might be right now as a Yankee fan, think about rooting for the team across town. The Mets plan on doing nothing this off season, and already project to be at the bottom of their division. Now the best team in their division just got MUCH better. The Met rebuilding plan should target 2015 as the next year they have a realistic shot at winning the division.

-Philly must be a great place to play and/or their GM Ruben Amaro has a knack with getting great 32 year pitchers to sign below market. First Roy Halladay signs a below market deal, now Cliff Lee. Their rotation is now unstoppable with a top 4 of Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, and Hamels. That’s easily the best top 4 in the game, and paired with their offense all they need to do is stay healthy and the National League is almost a forgone conclusion. Never know in a short series, but that’s as good as it gets. Their only question is age, seems like most of the key elements are 32 and older, but they could be a dynasty for the next few years.

Cliff Lee turning down the Yankees should have been the highlight of my postseason. For once, Steinbrenner millions can’t buy everything. Now Brian Cashman will have to think for a change instead of just taking out the checkbook. And then I found out where Lee was going.

I didn’t believe it when I first heard that the Phillies might be in on Lee. After all, they had gotten Roy Halladay to agree to a three-year deal for $20 million a year, with an option for a fourth year. How could they give Lee a much bigger deal after the year Halladay had?

The story is still unfolding, but whatever Lee ends up getting, I have to think that Halladay, who was the unanimous choice for Cy Young, pitched a perfect game and added only the second no-hitter in postseason history, will get a contract extension real soon.

It appears that Lee took a lot less money than he would have gotten from the Yankees, and less than he would have gotten from Texas as well. Good for Lee for following his heart and not just making a decision based on money, especially when the Players’ Association always wants players to take the biggest deal.

But why did Lee’s heart have to be in Philadelphia?

I called Squawker Lisa and woke her up to tell her the news, and she was suitably outraged, though it should be pointed out that Lisa has been one of the few to write consistently that the Yankees were not going to get Lee. Once Lisa calmed down, she was able to mutter that Lee was taking his talents to South Street.

Don’t worry, Lisa, now the Yankees can trade for Joe Blanton, since the Phillies will probably be looking to move him to cut salary to make room for Lee. And maybe Cashman, who gave Javier Vazquez a second chance, can hope the second time’s a charm with the second-best free agent pitcher available this year, a fellow named Pavano.

Or Cashman can mortgage the farm system for Zack Greinke, a great pitcher who isn’t likely to be great in New York.

How can I hate Lee when he personally called the Rangers to tell them they were out, while he had his agent call the Yankees?

As for the Mets, well, it’s not as if they were going to beat the Phillies next year anyway, but now 2012 and 2013 don’t look so great, either.

Not that I expect – or want – Sandy Alderson to suddenly start channeling Omar Minaya, but this latest Phillies blockbuster is going to put more pressure on the Mets to go after big-money players once they have payroll flexibility a year from now.

Almost everyone in the mainstream media predicted that the Yankees would get Lee. One of the reasons why some thought it might not happen was that Lee’s wife had complained about some unruly Yankee fans. So the Lees end up turning down the Bronx – for Philadelphia.

Well, I did not see that coming.

So it appears that Cliff Lee is indeed going to Philly — and apparently for tens of millions less than the Yankees (and presumably, Rangers) offered.

I can’t say I’ve seen an athlete do that too often, so not that he’ll be going hungry or anything, but I have a lot of respect for his decision. Well, in a sense. Anyone who takes millions of dollars less than they could make in New York, to live in Philadelphia, is not someone I feel I understand very well. Really? (“…Her?”). They’ve got one hell of a rotation there now, and I suppose that was part of the appeal for him. Maybe the guy just really loves cheese steak? Ah well, to each their own.

Particularly if Andy Pettitte doesn’t come back (… COME BACK ANDY! How does $25 million sound?!), next year’s Yankee pitching staff is looking a little Mitrish. As much as many of us thought a seven-year deal would likely be a drag on the team by the fifth or sixth year, it sure would’ve looked pretty in 2011. Now Brian Cashman is going to have to scramble faster than he scrambled down the side of that Connecticut office building in an elf costume. But hey, as Jon DeRosa put it last night, “On the bright side, we are now primed for 2015. Do not mess with us in 2015.”

Feel free to panic, rationalize, or remain in denial, as you prefer, below.

This is not official yet, but rumors (from reliable sources) going around the Twitterverse have been reporting that Cliff Lee turned down the Yankees’ approximately 7-year 154 million dollar offer for a 5-year 115 million dollar deal from the Phillies, a team that virtually nobody thought was even in on Lee.  It’s a bizarre turn of events because the Phillies traded Lee last year after he wouldn’t sign an extension with them, but evidently these things can change.  It’s unusual to see players leave money and years on the table (especially that much money), but I can’t fault Lee for turning down the money and going where he wanted to be.  I also can’t fault Brian Cashman here.  He did his job and gave Lee the highest offer, but evidently, Lee didn’t want to go to New York.  It’s unfortunate for the Yankees and Brian Cashman, who did his job and gave Lee the (presumed) highest offer.

So what’s next for the Yankees after this bombshell?  The Yankee rotation without Lee looks dangerously thin, and Cashman’s next task will likely be to beg Andy Pettitte to hold off retirement for one more year.  With Pettite, the rotation of Sabathia, Petttitte, Burnett (hopefully cured by Larry Rothschild), Hughes and Nova could still be playoff-worthy, but I imagine the Yankees will look to add another arm.  The free-agent market is pretty barren, with the best remaining guy, Carl Pavano, standing virtually zero chance of signing with the Yankees (and the Yankees probably don’t want him back either).

To acquire a frontline starter, the Yankees will probably have to look at the trade market.  A lot of speculation will revolve around Royals ace Zack Greinke, but I imagine that Dayton Moore’s high price will prevent a deal from happening, as he’ll try to chisel the seemingly desperate Yankees.  A Greinke deal would have to start with a Montero-caliber prospect, but the Royals already have an all-hit no-field catching prospect in Wil Myers, and the Yankee system lacks up-the-middle prospects that the Royals would covet.  I’m not sure who else could be made available, but there’s no ace-caliber arm on the trade market other than Greinke.  There may be concerns about how Greinke with his social anxiety disorder will be able to handle New York, but I wouldn’t let that get in the way of acquiring him if the price is right.

I doubt it will happen, but I think the Yankees should consider moving Joba Chamberlain back to the rotation.  Is it a panic move?  Maybe, but one with significant upside.  I think Joba still has the ability to be as good as if not better than pretty much any non-Greinke pitcher the Yankees could bring in.  Barring a trade for a frontline starter, it is an option that must be explored, because an 8th-inning guy is so much less valuable than a solid starter.  I know he’s been in the bullpen for a full season, but we’ve seen less talented relievers become successful starters (CJ Wilson and Ryan Dempster for example), and it’s worth a shot to see if Joba can rediscover his mojo in the rotation.

Are the 2011 Yankees  worse without Cliff Lee?  Almost certainly.  Are there some silver linings?  A few.  As EJ has alluded to, signing Lee to a big contract would be committing big dollars to another player in his 30′s who is on the wrong side of his prime.  By avoiding the contract, the Yankees could maintain flexibility, allowing them to shell out for the next big free agent (and preferably, one who’s not 32).  Additionally, they may get to keep their first-round pick in a loaded draft (unless they do something stupid like signing a Type-A reliever).  Also, Lee’s signing with Philly means that he’s not making a potential AL rival stronger.  Finally, the Yankees are returning pretty much the entirety of a 95-win team, while adding their top prospect into the catching mix.  Convinced?  Neither am I.  I would have loved to have Lee in the rotation, and I believe that he could have held up pretty well over the duration of the contract.

As Yankee fans, we’re used to getting everything we want.  For once, however, we’ll have to watch the shiny new toy we desperately wanted go somewhere else.  And it stings.  Regardless, it’s premature to panic and concede the season and the division to an improved Boston squad.  There will be bridge-jumpers and alarmists, but this is still a good Yankee club, and they still have to play the games.  Is there such thing as a 200 million dollar underdog?  There may be now.  Russell Martin here we come!
Update: Apparently the Rangers’ final offer may have been a little higher than the Yanks’.  6-year offer with a vesting option for a total of 161 million.