Submit Your Nominations For Our Next Dead Horse

First off all, something interesting: last night many people (including me) were eager to jump on the Cliff-Lee-took-less-money story, embracing the idea that here was the rare athlete motivated by something different, and therefore in some way admirable. Well, beware of easy storylines. It now seems that Lee may not have taken much less money at all. Our old friend William argues, at his blog and The Yankee U, that when you include the Phillies’ vesting option for a sixth year, the difference is negligible; he gets into the details of things like tax rates and interest rates which I am wary of diving into myself, but it does at least seem clear that while Lee may have taken less money, it was not near the $50 million less that was being thrown around last night. (Of course, I would love to get paid in a year what Cliff Lee will make in an inning, so it’s pretty much all magic-fun-numbers anyway at this level).

None of this really changes my reaction, which could be summed up as “probably for the best down the road, and if you need me in 2011, I’ll be on the floor, curled into the fetus position around a bottle of Laphroaig.”

With the drama of days and days of fevered speculation behind us, what’s next? The Yankees are already beginning to move on, making the non-inspiring but likely harmless move of signing Russell Martin to a one-year deal. To me, this doesn’t say they’re necessarily planning to trade one of their catching prospects (though of course that’s a possibility), but rather that they really, really do not think Jorge Posada can catch much anymore. Will the catching situation be the new dead horse upon which we release our impatience and frustration?

I’m taking suggestions, but I would like to preemptively oppose further debate on the Joba-as-starter idea. Yes, it makes sense to me too… but apparently it doesn’t to the Yankees, and there’s no meat left on that bone. He remains, for now, the World’s Most Famous Mediocre Middle Reliever.

Also, anybody who so much as whispers a word rhyming with “Pavano” gets slapped with a fish, Python-style.

55 days ’til spring training…

Cashman: No Need To Rush On Anything, Yanks Don’t Have Any Issues

Via Marc Carig – here’s what Brian Cashman is saying today, after losing Cliff Lee to the Phillies –

Plan B is patience…There are certain areas that are easier to address than others…It doesn’t have to happen in the winter time…I don’t think we have a lot of holes…

Anyone else see Chip Diller screaming “Remain calm, all is well!” when they read these comments?

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Yankees Sign Russell Martin

Russell Martin has agreed to a one year deal with the Yankees, reports Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com. While it is just a one year deal, Martin does have another year of arbitration eligibility left and will therefore remain under Yankee control in 2012 if they tender him a contract. I like this move, and I believe that it is a good first step in the Yankees “Plan B.” They need to fortify the entire roster, get Andy Pettitte to come back, and then address the hole in the starting rotation on their own terms. There is no reason to run out and make a move for a starter in a panic when you are bringing back every key player from a 95 win club.

Some think that this means Jesus Montero will be traded, but I see it more as insurance for the club if Montero struggles out of the gate. He will serve as a placeholder for Jesus much like Bengie Molina was for Buster Posey in 2010. Why Martin? This is what i said when he was first mentioned as a non-tender candidate:

Martin’s career has evaporated over the last two seasons, but he would likely represent an upgrade defensively behind the plate over every catcher that the Yankees have, and he still has some pop in his bat. He could take the Cervelli role in the 3-headed Yankee catching monster while allowing Jesus Montero to ease onto the roster slowly. If the Yankees get lucky, he could revert back to his old self and become an extremely valuable trade chip or allow the Yankees to explore trading some of their catching assets.

Those of you who have been complaining about the Yankees’ defense behind the plate should be excited, as Martin represents a marked improvement over what the club had back there in 2010. If he recovers any of his bat, he will go from being a decent piece to being a valuable asset.

Yankees Agree to Terms with Russell Martin

Cross-posted from FanGraphs.

(Mark J. Terrill/AP)

When the Dodgers non-tendered Russell Martin, it was only a matter of time before some team took a flier on him. Three AL East teams, in fact, were reportedly seeking his services. This morning we learned that the Yankees have come out ahead. MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez reports that the Yankees have agreed to terms with Martin. His presence could drastically alter how the Yankees approach the next eight months.

Taking on Martin certainly represents a risk, or else the Dodgers would have tendered him at the deadline. After hitting at least .280 in each of his first three seasons, Martin has been around .250 in each of the past two. During that time he has seen a dip in his BABIP, but it hasn’t been drastic. What’s more troublesome is that he has experienced a significant power dip in the last two seasons.

Also of concern is Martin’s hip, which he fractured in early August. That ended his season at just 97 games. While hip injuries are always a concern — and the Yankees reportedly think his physical is a big deal — it did afford him a bit of rest. From 2007 to 2009 Martin starts 449 games, which is the most among the 85 players who were behind the plate for 90 percent of their games. The next closest are Brian McCann and Jason Kendal at 422. Martin had played in 97 of the team’s 107 games up to his injury in 2010 as well. Wear and tear is certainly a concern with him.

Even as his average and power declined, Martin still managed to produce more than 2 WAR in each of the past two seasons. That is in part due to his position, but is also due to his sustained walk rate. When Martin broke out in 2007 he walked in 10.8 percent of his plate appearances. He’s remained above that mark ever since, which has allowed him to keep his OBP at a respectable level. In 2009 his .352 OBP ranked sixth among catchers with at least 400 PA, and his .347 mark would have ranked eighth in 2010 had he qualified. Since his debut in 2006, the only catcher who has drawn more walks is Joe Mauer.

Martin can help the Yankees immediately this off-season. After losing out on Cliff Lee, the Yankees could turn to the trade market in search of a starter who can fortify the 2011 rotation. That will mean sacrificing a few of their prospects. Chief among them is Jesus Montero, a 21-year-old catching prospect who figures to rank among the game’s top five prospects. If the Yankees want to make a splash, especially for a pitcher such as Zack Greinke, they’ll need to offer Montero. Having Martin on board helps them do that.

If the Yankees prefer to retain Montero and see if he can develop behind the plate, Martin helps them do that, too. His presence allows them to start Montero in the minor leagues. That allows them a bit longer a period to assess the situation. If Montero continues to mash AAA pitching and shows semi-competent skills behind the plate, the Yankees can perhaps flip Martin, or else use him to help ease Montero into the starting role — in the same manner they eased in Jorge Posada with Joe Girardi in the late 90s. If Martin produces heavily, the Yankees could also be inclined to use Montero as a July trade chip.

Martin might represent a risk, but it is one that the Yankees are positioned to take. They have plenty of available money after losing out on Lee — perhaps up to $25 million — so they can afford to absorb Martin’s 2011 salary if he flames out. If he comes back to his 2009 and 2010 levels, they’ll at least have a catcher with a decent OBP who can help ease Montero into the role (if they don’t trade him first). If he rebounds to his 2007 and 2008 levels, the Yankees have an absolute steal. In any case, it was a good move for a team that has money to burn.

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

Yankees Agree to Terms with Russell Martin



The Joba Question, or Just How Devious Are the Yankees?

Think it over.

More photos » Kathy Willens – AP

Think it over.

I was looking at Cot’s Baseball Contracts today, and I had one of my crazy ideas.

Joba Chamberlain is entering his first year of arbitration. He is in line for a pay raise.

Here’s what he did in a full season as a starter: 157IP, 4.75 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 7.6 K/9

Here’s what he did in a full season as a reliever: 71IP, 4.40 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 9.7 K/9

According to traditional measures, he performed better as a reliever- though there is a more nuanced argument to be made that his relatively solid numbers were ruined by his autumn collapse as the Yanks jerked him around trying to figure out how to manage his innings in ’09.  That’s not what I’m thinking about though…

In their first arbitration years, starters like Wandy Rodriguez and John Danks brought home around $3M.

On the other hand, non-closer relievers like Rafael Perez and Manny Delcarmen earned less than $1M.

Are the Yankees calculating enough to take a “Joba to the pen” stance to save themselves a couple million dollars? Once Joba signs (or goes to arbitration in February), will their public position soften to “allow” Joba the chance to compete for a spot in the rotation?

If I’d thought of it, I’d do it.



Dizzying

Since the end of the 2009 World Series, the following star pitchers have become available via trade or free agency: Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, John Lackey, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Dan Haren, and Cliff Lee.

Since the end of the 2009 World Series, the following second-tier pitchers have have become available via trade or free agency: Ted Lilly (twice), Shawn Marcum, Jake Westbrook (twice), Edwin Jackson (twice), Javier Vazquez (twice), John Garland (twice), Brett Myers, Carl Pavano (twice), and Hideki Kuroda.

Since the end of the 2009 World Series, the following other interesting pitchers have have become available via trade or free agency: Max Scherzer, Joe Saunders, JA Happ, Colby Lewis, and Jorge De La Rosa.

I’m sure the list is not complete and that there are legit quibbles about who is interesting and who is a star, but the points are macro. One should be comforting, the other should be troubling.

1) The Yanks will have shots at all sorts of pitchers if they stay on top of it. Guys who are obvious targets and guys we might never predict.

2) The Yanks knew their long-term rotation was in trouble ever since they gave up on Chamberlain and were forced to gamble on a three-man rotation to win the Series. And the only guy they were able to get on the above lists was Javy the Hated.

Actually, there’s one big mistake here. There is no way Joe Saunders can be considered “interesting.”

The worst thing about Cliff Lee going to the Phillies

It’s bad enough that the Mets will have to face a powerhouse Phillies team the next few years. But what’s even worse is that the Phillies have become the kind of team star players take less money to join.

Last year, Roy Halladay signed a three-year contract extension with Philadelphia for $60 million. Halladay could have been a free agent after the 2010 season. Imagine what his market would have been. But Halladay was willing to give up future tens of millions of dollars to go to the Phillies. Now Cliff Lee has also left tens of millions of dollars on the table for a chance to play with Shane Victorino.

Most free agents end up where the most money is. But one would hope that, the money being equal, some players would prefer the Mets over other clubs. Instead, the Mets have often had to overcome a star’s reluctance to join them. Flushing was reportedly “Beirut” to Jason Bay. Carlos Beltran reportedly was willing to take less money to go the Yankees. Carlos Delgado turned down a chance to play for the Mets in 2005 before the Mets traded for him the following year.

Under the new regime, I have confidence that the Mets will soon become a place where stars want to play and that Sandy Alderson and company will spend money, but do so wisely. However, I still expect that the Mets, like just about every other team, will ultimately have to outbid other clubs to get the players they want.

But it’s hard to imagine players taking less money to join the Mets.

Alderson may eventually close the talent gap with the Phillies, but now he must close the likeability gap as well. As with the Phillies, the Mets need to become the kind of club that players want to join for reasons besides money.

W.C. Fields must be turning over in his grave. Who would have thought that, on the whole, star pitchers would rather be in Philadelphia?